Drawing on techniques from decision analysis, psychology, and negotiation analysis, we highlight a general approach to assessing genocide prevention decisions that we believe could provide decision makers with additional ...

Over the past two decades one of the most dramatic phenomenon on the social scene has been the rise of broad, public involvement in decision maldng about complex technologies, including those that protect society from ...

Much recent research in the area of judgment and decision making has been dominated by documentation of ways in which people's intuitive thought processes can lead them astray. Like other psychological results that have ...

A critical task often performed by decision makers is to make estimates of important points of fact. Previous research has suggested that decomposition of numerical estimation problems can result in improved estimation ...

People tend to be inadequately sensitive to the extent of their own knowledge. This insensitivity typically emerges as overconfidence. That is, people's assessments of the probability of having answered questions ...

Four groups of college students were each given two base-rate problems. Three of the groups were given an aid with the first problem: (a) An instruction to list factors or aspects that were relevant to solving the ...

Calibration concerns the relationship between subjective probabilities and the long-run frequencies of events. Theorems from the statistical and probability literature are reviewed to discover the conditions under which ...

The singularity effect of identifiable victims refers to people’s greater willingness to help a single concrete victim, as compared with a group of victims experiencing the same need. We present three studies exploring ...

Charitable giving in 2013 exceeded $300 billion, but why do we respond to some life-saving causes while ignoring others? In our first two studies, we demonstrated that valuation of lives is associated with affective feelings ...